Covert Contact 71: System Failure: It Only Gets More Difficult from Here

In this August 2017 conversation, entrepreneur, consultant, and Warlords, Inc.: Black Markets, Broken States, and the Rise of the Warlord Entrepreneur co-editor Andrew Trabulsi joins me to examine the pressures on political, economic, and social systems. Charlottesville and the growing visibility of white supremacist groups provide the starting point for a wider discussion about institutional failure and the challenges ahead.

We consider how economic insecurity, inequality, and the search for identity can contribute to fragmentation and extremist recruitment. We are explicit that examining those pressures does not diminish the role of racism. The conversation also addresses armed intimidation, political leadership, and our concern that the boundaries of acceptable public discourse were shifting.

Looking further ahead, we discuss how automation and declining access to work could deepen existing divisions. Andrew draws on his research into black markets and warlord entrepreneurs to explore what happens when people lose confidence in governments' ability to provide security and opportunity. Groups that fill those gaps can become competitors to the state itself.

We also examine the difficulties surrounding universal basic income and ask how workers might share more directly in productivity gains. A further financial crisis enters the conversation as a possible source of instability, rather than a prediction. Biotechnology and computational propaganda are briefly raised as additional concerns that deserve more attention.

We close by arguing for a longer view: understanding how these pressures interact over decades, staying clearheaded, and moving institutions toward effective action. The episode offers questions and scenarios for thinking about systemic risk, with an emphasis on the need to act before problems become harder to manage.

This episode was originally released on August 21, 2017. Political references, forecasts, and assessments reflect the discussion at that time.