Covert Contact 70: Iran in the Age of Trump

In this June 2017 conversation, Phillip Smyth joins me to examine Iran's regional influence and the early Trump administration's approach to the Middle East. At the time, Phillip was a researcher at the University of Maryland focusing on Iran-backed Shiite proxy groups, and the author of the Hizballah Cavalcade project on Jihadology.

We begin with the reaction to Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and ask whether regional partners see a coordinated shift in American policy or an opportunity to pursue their own priorities. Phillip discusses the concerns of Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates, alongside Iran's growing reach through allied governments and armed groups.

The conversation turns to confrontations in Syria and the danger that tactical encounters could develop into a wider conflict. Phillip describes Iran and its partners as testing American responses across several fronts. We question how clearly Washington has defined its objectives and red lines, and whether a greater willingness to push back amounts to a coherent long-term strategy.

We also consider what follows the Islamic State's territorial losses. Rivalries involving Iran, Gulf states, local militias, and competing rebel groups could outlast the campaign against ISIS. The dispute involving Qatar illustrates why a simple Sunni-versus-Shiite framework cannot explain all of the region's divisions.

We close with Russia's partnership with Iran and the need for adaptable, clearly communicated policy backed by sustained diplomatic leadership. Throughout the discussion, we return to the difficulty of judging the direction of American policy while regional actors pursue their own agendas.

This episode was originally released on June 18, 2017. Roles, political references, and assessments reflect the discussion at that time.