Covert Contact 89: Evaluating the North Korean Threat

Phil Walter returns to examine the North Korean crisis and the difficulty of separating a serious military threat from the rhetoric surrounding it. Drawing on his military and intelligence experience, we discuss what analysts should watch when assessing the possibility of war, including the movement of people, equipment, and support that a large conflict would require.

The conversation considers the limits of a supposedly narrow strike against North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. A plan that concentrates on destroying a target can leave much harder questions about retaliation, escalation, and the protection of South Korea unanswered. We also explore the distinction between what a government can do and what its leaders are likely to do, and why describing an adversary as irrational can become a substitute for understanding its interests.

That leads to a broader discussion of security and risk. How much danger can a country live with, and what might it sacrifice in pursuit of greater safety? We question the assumption that technology or military force can deliver perfect security, particularly when the costs would fall heavily on people elsewhere. Leaders’ concerns about prestige and credibility can also shape decisions in ways that are difficult to understand from outside the room.

Recorded in December 2017, the discussion looks ahead to the Winter Olympics and the political and military signals that might follow. We consider the need for public debate about preventive war, the difference between confronting an imminent attack and acting against a possible future threat, and the wider implications for China and the American presence in the region. The emphasis throughout is on testing assumptions, making the consequences visible, and resisting simple answers to a problem with enormous human stakes.