Covert Contact 96: What's Happening at the Chinese Consulate in Houston?
I look at the document burning at China’s Houston consulate, the city’s value as an intelligence target, and the possibility of reciprocal closures as the diplomatic confrontation unfolds in July 2020.
The document fires at the Chinese consulate in Houston put a familiar part of the city at the center of a diplomatic confrontation. In this short update, recorded as the story is developing in July 2020, I look at why Houston matters to Chinese intelligence collection and what the consulate’s closure could mean for the relationship between the United States and China.
Houston’s importance goes well beyond its size. Its port, energy industry, aerospace and defense work, and medical research make it a valuable place to gather information. The city also has extensive international business ties and a large, diverse population. Having lived near the consulate, I describe its position between downtown and the Texas Medical Center and the legitimate diplomatic and commercial activity surrounding it.
That activity also creates opportunities for intelligence collection. I discuss how business proposals, contracts, and front companies can blur the line between ordinary commercial contact and an intelligence approach. Someone providing useful information may believe they are pursuing a legitimate opportunity, which makes this kind of activity particularly difficult to recognize and address. The scale and breadth of the collection effort matter as much as any single building.
I also consider the likely diplomatic response. At the time of recording, the question is which American facility China might close in retaliation and how far the exchange could go. The earlier confrontation over Russia’s consulate in San Francisco offers a point of comparison. My expectation is a reciprocal response rather than an immediate uncontrolled escalation, while recognizing that further measures remain possible.
The larger issue is the imbalance between the freedom foreign intelligence services enjoy in an open society and the constraints Americans face operating in China. Closing a consulate may send a signal, but it leaves a much broader counterintelligence problem to address.