Russia Invades Ukraine

The deranged worldview and depravity behind Putin’s decision to launch this criminal war should surprise no one. His record, including the suffering he has inflicted on his own people, is long. Ukraine now faces the immediate consequences. Without shifting attention away from the Ukrainian people, we must also recognize that Putin presents an imminent threat to global stability.

As the day unfolded, it became increasingly clear that Russia was preparing for something far larger than a limited or phased military operation. The warnings from U.S. intelligence were proving accurate. The way intelligence was used publicly in the buildup to this war deserves serious study. For now, the central point is painfully clear: the invasion that Washington had been warning about was taking shape.

President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to reach Putin in a final effort to avert the attack. Putin would not take the call. Zelensky instead addressed the Russian people directly, speaking in Russian and appealing for peace.

Putin answered with a speech announcing a “special military operation” aimed at Ukraine’s “demilitarization” and “denazification.” The language offered a pretext for war, not a credible explanation for it. His threats against anyone who might intervene made the danger even clearer.

He warned that interference would bring an immediate Russian response and consequences unlike anything those countries had experienced in their history. Coming from the leader of a nuclear-armed state, that warning carried an unmistakable nuclear implication. Putin was attacking Ukraine while trying to intimidate the rest of the world into standing aside.

The speech was broadcast as the UN Secretary-General, the American ambassador to the United Nations, and others were appealing for peace. The contrast was brutal. Diplomats were still calling for restraint while Russia was beginning its assault.

Reports of explosions spread rapidly. The White House issued a statement, and Ukraine’s foreign minister confirmed that the invasion was underway. The foreign ministers of the Baltic states also issued a joint statement. Their alarm was entirely justified. They understand the threat posed by Moscow and have every reason to see Ukraine’s fate as closely connected to their own security.

Following the attack in real time also exposed the limits of an information environment flooded with reports. Some of the initial accounts were bleak, and some proved false. Claims that Russian troops had landed in Odesa, for example, were rejected by the Ukrainian military.

The fog of war does not necessarily lift when more sources become available. Sometimes it gets thicker. A claim repeated across dozens of accounts can appear confirmed when everyone is drawing from the same unverified report. Speed is useful, but it is no substitute for verification.

There are excellent open-source researchers doing valuable work. Rob Lee’s steady reporting throughout the crisis is one example. Careful sourcing and a willingness to distinguish confirmed information from speculation matter enormously when events are moving this quickly.

It is hard to watch these scenes without thinking about Europe’s history. The sight of a powerful state invading its neighbor while insisting that it is acting defensively is terrifying. So is the possibility that an inadequate response will encourage further aggression.

President Biden and allied leaders have promised a strong response. We must rise to this occasion. That means using the diplomatic and economic tools available, supporting Ukraine, and sustaining a united front even when doing so carries costs.

The suffering of Ukrainians must remain at the center of our attention. But the consequences of this war will extend far beyond Ukraine. Putin is attacking the principle that sovereign countries cannot simply be conquered because a stronger neighbor rejects their independence.

I do not know whether tomorrow will bring any cause for hope. Tonight offers little. But there is no reason to assume this will be Putin’s last act of aggression if he is allowed to succeed.

The sooner we confront that reality, the better. It is time to pull out the diplomatic stops.